Sunday, March 2, 2014

Here Are Your Playoff Scenarios and Implications for Alaska

I'm going to just link you over to the synopsis posted this morning with the full breakdown of the entire WCHA seeding. But at 3,500 words, the TL;DR version for Alaska is this...

Here’s how seeding for the WCHA tournament happens.

Seeding for the WCHA Tournament

If two or more teams have accumulated the same number of points shall be determined according to the following procedure:

A) If two or more teams are tied, and all teams tied have played four contests against one another, then the team with the most accumulated points from these head to head contests will be granted the higher seed.

B) If two or more teams are still tied (or all teams tied have not played four contests against one another) the highest seed will go to the team with the greater number of conference wins.

C) If not determined by A) or B) above, the recipient of the highest seed shall be determined by comparison of the winning percentages of the teams tied, against the remaining highest ranked WCHA team successively, until the determination is accomplished, or all WCHA contests have been considered.

In the event of multiple ties within the standings that become dependent on one another for determination, the procedure shall be applied to the highest tie first, using combined winning percentage against all teams involved in the lower tie(s) and continuing through the order if needed. If this fails to break the highest tie, the procedure shall be applied to the next highest tie (and so on if needed), using combined winning percentage against all tied teams as needed when proceeding through the standings.

Alaska: at 28 [points] with one more league win than the Huskies, the Nanooks really do control their home ice destiny.

  •  A sweep of the Seawolves gets them 3rd even if the Huskies sweep Mankato. 
  • A split sees them with home ice: the only teams that can get to 30 points are UAF, MTU, UAA, and BG. MTU is irrelevant in this calculus, and Anchorage can’t get there if the teams split. That leaves a comparison with BG, whom they did not play four times, so the B) tiebreaker goes to the Nanooks (14 league wins with a split). 
  • An Anchorage sweep keeps the Nanooks at 28 points (13-13-2). The Seawolves will have leapfrogged into the 3/4 zone, which I’ll cover in a bit. If Tech is swept, that gets you to a two-way tie, a comparison the Nanooks win: A) 2-2-0, B) 13-12. If Bowling Green splits with Bemidji State, that gets them to 13-13-4. BG and UAF would push the Huskies to fifth with the B) tiebreaker, and then the Nanooks win with the C) tiebreaker no matter who wins between FSU and MSU. 
  • If Bemidji sweeps BG, they get to 28 points as well, but the Nanooks win the A) and B) tiebreakers.

Alaska-Anchorage [......snip.......]
  • A winless Anchorage weekend puts them at 11-13-4 /26 points, where it gets head-hurty. BG is already there, but if they get swept by the Beavers, the Green are at 28 points. 
  • A split between the squads ties BSU and UAA up in points and record, so we’re to C) tiebreakers, which favors BSU if Ferris is #1 and UAA if Mankato is #1. LSSU can also get to 26 points with a win in Big Rapids, and the Lakers win the B) tiebreaker. Northern Michigan can leapfrog them into 27 points with a sweep here in Huntsville. 
  • Is there a way for UAA to miss the playoffs?! Yes. 1) UAF sweeps UAA. 2) BSU and BG split. 3) Ferris becomes #1 AND Lake picks up a game, which means a Tech sweep of Mankato (or one point for the Mavs, but come on, I’m at 2350 words and two hours at this point). 4) NMU sweeps UAH.

1 comment:

Squarebanks said...

Bottom line, just win. The way the standings are setting up, we may have two chances to send Anchorage home for the year.