Saturday, March 15, 2014
Beck Gets 100th Point in Tight 2-1 Loss to Seawolves in Game 2
Then with under 29 seconds on the clock, Parayko just ripped a shot from just inside the blue line as he caught the goaltender out of position to put the Nanooks up 1-0. Beck got the primary assist with the pass through the neutral zone, which ended up being his 100th career point, the 31st Nanook to do so. Big achievement there.
But in the second, the bounces just started going the other way. Every chance the 'Nooks had, the puck would be rolling just enough to miss the stick, or come off the toe of the blade just wrong enough to completely miss an open opportunity. Couple that with 2 quick goals for the Seawolves just 1:28 apart early in the 2nd gave the 'Pups some unnecessary confidence. But the 'Nooks didn't quit, and after the 2nd media timeout they came out firing. Despite the penalty, I thought Atkinson had a hell of a period. He handled the puck well and took defenders and contained to the outside. Very solid.
In the 3rd, much of the same, although a bit more even keel. Sean Cahill kept the 'Nooks in it, but the officials kept them out of it. Terrible offsides calls, terrible penalties both called and not. Was not called fairly. I don't criticize officiating often, even if its terrible as long as it goes both ways. Last night, not so much... Hard to win a game when you're playing more than just the other team.
A deciding game three is now on the books and if the 'Nooks hope to make it to Grand Rapids, they need a coordinated team effort top to bottom. Hard to believe that with one offensive cog missing from the gears, things just didn't roll the same way. Everything seemed a little off... If the 'Nooks want to win, they need to channel individual effort into a team strategy and not just have 20 skaters banging around uncoordinated. I would have much preferred to have most of the lines gelled like they have been, especially the Larson-Hochhausen-Huysmans line who had been creating havoc for defenses, but the only line that hasn't been shuffled is the top line with Beck-Kunyk-Basara. But as the game went on, Perry subbed in on the right wing to try and get things stirred up and eventually moved to center to try and help get Kunyk going.
Hard to say if the lines will be shuffled further for the final game. Time will tell.
Friday, March 14, 2014
The Stat Guy - Statistical Edge After First Victory in Best of 3 Series
The good news for Anchorage, if there is any, is that if they can prevail in game 2 the odds revert back to a coin toss.
This simple calculation of course does not factor in winning percentage, momentum, home ice or officiating. That's why--I am often reminded--they play the games.
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Captain Clutch Buries in OT as Nanooks Roll in OT
Nanooks Earn Top WCHA Honors
Cody Kunyk caps his senior season off with the league's top honor, the 2014 Player of the Year and Scoring Champion. Colton Parayko added to that with the other top performing skating honor as the Defensive Player of the Year. Both players of course situated atop the All-WCHA First team.
Basara finished second in voting as Rookie of the Year despite tying LSSU's Alex Globke in scoring. I suppose you gotta give other teams a bone. But he did get himself on the All-WCHA Rookie Team
Also congratulations to Colton Beck and Tyler Morley for making the Second and Third team rosters, respectively.
The Run Begins - Nanooks Chase for National Title Begins with UAA
After claiming their 5th straight Governor's Cup, the Nanooks welcome back the 'Pups for a best of three, which really can be realized as a best of 7. Would have been interesting to see if the Governor's Cup series could have been altered to be given to the playoff winner, but we weren't that lucky.
Nothing changes between these two teams. Tyler Morley still remains day-to-day. No word has come to me yet whether he is skating or not. I'm told a game time decision for Friday.
With UAA coming back and the game they played Saturday, one has to assume they are going to have some confidence headed into this weekend. On Saturday, the 'Nooks played with new line combinations for the first time in the past 4 weeks with just a preskate under their belts. Now with a whole week of practice, I would have to assume that would change.
I was surprised to see the Huysmans-Hochhausen-Larson line split on Saturday with the injury to Tyler Morley. With Linnell out, I would have expected to see Youngmun on the right or left side with Brandon in the center and bring in Duke and Friese with Erickson, who were so successful down in Anchorage. The latter part still happened, but more shakeups were seen than I expected.
With this weekend, the 'Nooks are 4 wins away from a WCHA title, and 8 wins from the national title. Having won 7 in a row already, the 'Nooks are in a good place. If you had to end a winning streak, the final game of the regular season would be it.
Against Anchorage this weekend, the boys just have to recollect their focus. As last Friday showed, the Nanooks are the better team, its just a matter of keeping the pedal to the metal. Either way you look at it, its going to be a great series.
Go 'Nooks!
The Stat Guy - Pi Day
Why does this matter you ask? Pi is an irrational and transcendental number. It will continue infinitely without repetition or pattern.
Pi day in Fairbanks, Alaska presents a statistical anomaly which involves The WCHA, Nanook Hockey, and the Carlson Center.
With Alaska locking in the 3rd seed, they will host 6th seeded UAA. Due to the Arctic Winter Games, our home playoff series must start on March 13th rather than March 14th as games elsewhere in the WCHA. That means that Pi Day could be a very special day for Nanook fans as well as mathematicians. The Nanooks could be the first team to punch their ticket to the WCHA Final Five in Grand Rapids, Michigan's Van Andel Arena March 20th-22nd, 2014. So let's hope to celebrate together on Pi Day, fans!
Go Nooks, Math Rocks
The Stat Guy
Saturday, March 8, 2014
Full WCHA Playoff Scenarios for Saturday
Minnesota State -
Seeded 1st with a win.
Seeded 1st with a tie and a Ferris State loss or tie.
Seeded 1st with a loss and a Ferris State loss.
Seeded 2nd with a tie and a Ferris State win.
Seeded 2nd with a loss and a Ferris State win or tie.
-------------------------
Ferris State -
Seeded 1st with a win and a Minnesota State loss or tie.
Seeded 1st with a tie and a Minnesota State loss.
Seeded 2nd with a win and a Minnesota State win.
Seeded 2nd with a tie and a Minnesota State win or tie.
Seeded 2nd with a loss.
-------------------------
Alaska -
Seeded 3rd.
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Michigan Tech -
Seeded 4th with a win.
Seeded 4th with a tie and a Bowling Green loss or tie.
Seeded 4th with a loss, a Bowling Green loss, and an Alaska Anchorage loss or tie.
Seeded 5th with a tie and a Bowling Green win.
Seeded 5th with a loss, a Bowling Green win or tie, and an Alaska Anchorage loss or tie.
Seeded 6th with a loss and an Alaska Anchorage win.
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Bowling Green -
Seeded 4th with a win and a Michigan Tech loss or tie.
Seeded 4th with a tie and a Michigan Tech loss.
Seeded 4th with a loss, a Michigan Tech loss, and an Alaska Anchorage win.
Seeded 5th with a win and a Michigan Tech win.
Seeded 5th with a tie and a Michigan Tech win or tie.
Seeded 5th with a loss and a Michigan Tech win or tie.
Seeded 5th with a loss, a Michigan Tech loss, and an Alaska Anchorage loss or tie.
-------------------------
Alaska Anchorage -
Seeded 5th with a win and a Michigan Tech loss.
Seeded 6th with a win and a Michigan Tech win or tie.
Seeded 6th with a tie and a Northern Michigan loss or tie.
Seeded 6th with a loss, a Northern Michigan loss, a Lake Superior State loss or tie, and a Bemidji State loss or tie.
Seeded 6th with a loss, a Northern Michigan loss, a Lake Superior State loss, a Bemidji State win, and a Minnesota State win.
Seeded 6th with a loss, a Northern Michigan loss, a Lake Superior State tie, a Bemidji State win, and a Minnesota State win or tie.
Seeded 7th with a tie and a Northern Michigan win.
Seeded 7th with a loss, a Northern Michigan loss, a Lake Superior State loss, a Bemidji State win, and a Minnesota State loss or tie.
Seeded 7th with a loss, a Northern Michigan loss, a Lake Superior State tie, a Bemidji State win, and a Minnesota State loss.
Seeded 7th with a loss, a Northern Michigan loss, and a Lake Superior State win.
Seeded 7th with a loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, a Lake Superior State loss or tie, and a Bemidji State loss or tie.
Seeded 7th with a loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, a Lake Superior State loss, a Bemidji State win, and a Minnesota State win.
Seeded 7th with a loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, a Lake Superior State tie, a Bemidji State win, and a Minnesota State win or tie.
Seeded 8th with a loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, a Lake Superior State loss, a Bemidji State win, and a Minnesota State loss or tie.
Seeded 8th with a loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, a Lake Superior State tie, a Bemidji State win, and a Minnesota State loss.
Seeded 8th with a loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, and a Lake Superior State win.
-------------------------
Northern Michigan -
Seeded 6th with a win and an Alaska Anchorage loss or tie.
Seeded 6th with a tie, an Alaska Anchorage loss, and an Lake Superior State loss or tie.
Seeded 7th with a win and an Alaska Anchorage win.
Seeded 7th with a tie, an Alaska Anchorage loss, and an Lake Superior State win.
Seeded 7th with a tie, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, and an Lake Superior State loss or tie.
Seeded 7th with a loss, a Lake Superior State loss or tie, and a Bemidji State loss or tie.
Seeded 8th with a tie, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, and an Lake Superior State win.
Seeded 8th with a loss, a Lake Superior State loss or tie, and a Bemidji State win.
Seeded 8th with a loss, a Lake Superior State win, and a Bemidji State loss or tie.
Finishes 9th with a loss, a Lake Superior State win, and a Bemidji State win.
-------------------------
Lake Superior State -
Seeded 6th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, and a Northern Michigan loss or tie.
Seeded 7th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, and a Northern Michigan win.
Seeded 7th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, and a Northern Michigan tie.
Seeded 7th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, a Northern Michigan loss, and a Bemidji State loss or tie.
Seeded 8th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, a Northern Michigan loss, and a Bemidji State win.
Seeded 8th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, a Northern Michigan win, and a Bemidji State loss or tie.
Seeded 8th with a tie, a Northern Michigan loss, and a Bemidji State loss or tie.
Seeded 8th with a tie, a Northern Michigan win or tie, and a Bemidji State loss.
Finishes 9th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, a Northern Michigan win, and a Bemidji State win.
Finishes 9th with a tie, a Northern Michigan loss, and a Bemidji State win.
Finishes 9th with a tie, a Northern Michigan win or tie, and a Bemidji State win or tie.
Finishes 9th with a loss.
-------------------------
Bemidji State -
Seeded 6th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, a Northern Michigan loss, a Lake Superior State loss, and a Minnesota State loss or tie.
Seeded 6th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, a Northern Michigan loss, a Lake Superior State tie, and a Minnesota State loss.
Seeded 7th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, a Northern Michigan loss, a Lake Superior State loss, and a Minnesota State win.
Seeded 7th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, a Northern Michigan loss, a Lake Superior State tie, and a Minnesota State win or tie.
Seeded 7th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, a Lake Superior State loss, and a Minnesota State loss or tie.
Seeded 7th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, a Lake Superior State tie, and a Minnesota State loss.
Seeded 7th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, and a Northern Michigan loss.
Seeded 8th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, a Lake Superior State loss, and a Minnesota State win.
Seeded 8th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, a Lake Superior State tie, and a Minnesota State win or tie.
Seeded 8th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, a Northern Michigan loss, and a Lake Superior State win.
Seeded 8th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, a Northern Michigan tie, and a Lake Superior State loss or tie.
Seeded 8th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, and a Northern Michigan win.
Seeded 8th with a tie and a Lake Superior State loss.
Seeded 8th with a tie, a Northern Michigan win or tie, and a Lake Superior State tie.
Seeded 8th with a loss and a Lake Superior State loss.
Finishes 9th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage loss, a Northern Michigan win or tie, and a Lake Superior State win.
Finishes 9th with a win, an Alaska Anchorage win or tie, a Northern Michigan tie, and a Lake Superior State win.
Finishes 9th with a tie, a Northern Michigan loss, and a Lake Superior State tie.
Finishes 9th with a tie and a Lake Superior State win.
Finishes 9th with a loss and a Lake Superior State win or tie.
-------------------------
Alabama Huntsville -
Finishes 10th.
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Cody Kunyk and the Nanooks Take ACC to the Woodshed 7-2
I very much hope that he's OK. I do not know how serious the injury is. Obviously I hope its minor. But all things considered, I don't expect him to play tomorrow.
Tomorrow is senior night, so be sure to get their early to support our 3 graduating seniors. All 3 of these guys are exemplary young men and we owe it to them to give them the send-off they deserve. Going to be an emotional one, I'm sure I'll shed a tear or two. These guys are special.
Thursday, March 6, 2014
The Stat Guy: Net Profits
My basic premise was that the team has played much better in the second half of the season and even better in the last 10 games than the first half. Upon further investigation a couple of things stood out and if you are like me it will come as quite a surprise. But enough foreshadowing, lets get to the numbers and figure out the conclusion together.
In the first half of the season (18 games) the 'Nooks scored 55 goals (3.06 GFA)and surrendered 54 goals (3.00 GAA) a very marginal difference for a record of 8-10-4. In the second half 14 games thus far, the Nooks have scored 55 goals (3.92 GFA) and surrendered just 35 goals (2.5 GAA)a statistically significant difference. A wonderful improvement right, wait it gets better. In the last 10 games the Nanooks have scored 46 goals (4.6 GFA) and surrendered only 23 goals (2.3 GAA).
Prior to the final 10 games Keeney was 3-3-2, Jones 4-5-1 and Cahill 1-2-1. In the last 10 games Keeney has gone 1-1-0 and Cahill is 7-1-0. The recent winning streak of 8 of the last 9 games means that the Nanooks are now fighting with their arch rivals for home ice in the playoffs this weekend.
Let's delve deeper into the goaltender statistical archives and tempt fate even further. Since Cahill has gone 7-1-0 in his last 8 starts his GAA has dropped to 2.25 per game. How good is that you say? Well he has continued to climb the Goaltending Leaders list in the WCHA during that stretch and now occupies the number 2 position behind Minnesota State Freshman sensation Cole Huggins at 2.08. The recently dispatched C.J. Motte of Ferris State, resides in third place with a (2.37 GAA). Cahill was certainly the benefiary of the 'Nooks hanging 9 goals on Motte last weekend in two games at the Carlson Center as he passed him on his way to the top. Save Percentage currently has Sean at number 9 and rising. Finally, perhaps the ultimate test of a goaltender is his winning percentage, the WCHA leader is C.J. Motte at 22-7-3 or .734 and yes you probably guessed it by now but sitting in number 2 and heating up is Sean Cahill at .708.
If you attend the games this weekend and Sean is in net, let's let him hear it from the crowd. He and the team in front of him have made quite a run and they are absolutely on fire. So what have we learned from this somewhat long and arduous research project? Well, my business law professor in college was fond of the latin phrase "ipsa loquitor" or "the thing speaks for itself". In other words, the facts (stats) in the case lead to only one logical conclusion. One of my favorite mathematics instructors believed that the "proof was in the pudding". Translation: he felt that it was easy to make profound claims in math but it was a bit more difficult matter to prove them. I had suspected after the Nooks made their recent run from 9th place to a tie for 3rd that they had improved significantly. What I was not expecting to find in the data which Malcolm Gladwell points out in his best selling book of the same name was that Sean Cahill and the Nooks had become statistical 'Outliers' in their league. No team in the conference would want to face the Nanooks if they can maintain their current momentum.
Go Nooks, Math Rocks!
The Stat Guy
The Drive For Five
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
An Introduction
As many coaches have said in the past, we may think we are better than our record today but ultimately we are what our record or stats says we are. In other words, you can outrun the numbers in the short run but eventually the math will simply catch up and overwhelm you. I will give you examples of this in future posts.
My background is mathematics and I hope to share with you in the future the true beauty of math and it's application in the "real world" and specifically as it applies to Nanook hockey and the WCHA conference. As a mathematician, it is often said that we live within a matrix. In mathematics, a matrix (plural, matrices) is a rectangular array of numbers, arranged in rows and columns. A major application of matrices is to represent linear transformations but perhaps that is too much information (TMI) at this time. Let's just say that cryptography or the encryption of secret codes involves passing the information transferred through a matrix for encryption (encoding), and the inverse matrix for decryption (decoding).
I have followed Nanook hockey for many years and the statistics are constantly pouring through my matrix for decryption. Many stats this season have stood out after decryption and I hope to discuss them and future anomalies in future posts.......
Math Rocks!
The Stat Guy
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Here Are Your Playoff Scenarios and Implications for Alaska
Nanooks Continue to Roll, 5-3 over No. 4 FSU For 6th Straight Win
Into the 3rd, things got really interesting. Three straight goals for the 'Nooks solidified that one in the books as the guys got CJ Motte completely out of his element. Beck buried a rebound that looked like a perfectly ripe golden delicious apple--JUICY. 3-2 edge for Alaska at this point, but this is where the wheels fell off the bus for Motte.
Motte getting chippy. Every coach now has video on how to beat this guy.
— BGSUHockey.com (@BGSUHockeySite) March 2, 2014
I’m glad that I stayed up for the CJ Motte show.
— UAHHockey.com (@weloveuahhockey) March 2, 2014
And my personal favorite...
Pretty sure CJ Motte has lost his damn mind.
— BGSUHockey.com (@BGSUHockeySite) March 2, 2014
That was pretty much assured into the 3rd as Jared Larson went to work and caught a clean breakaway with a good stride on the defense. Then in this week's version of Dominik Hasek, Motte charges ahead to poke check the puck away from Larson, and ends up taking him out in the process. As part of this shenanigan, Motte loses his lid--physically and metaphorically--and in the few seconds to follow, Beck pumps one across the goal line with Motte somewhere in La-La-Land. The ruling was (and correctly so) that the goaltender's helmet came off with the puck in play, and thus play is stopped immediately. Granted, the puck crossed before the whistle was blown, but that doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. However, what really got Motte rattled is the tripping call he got for that little stunt.
With the game at 3-2 still, the Nanooks had tons of momentum at this point but was slightly taken off kilter with an untimely penalty for Brandon Morley for being checked into the goaltender. But the penalty kill did its job, and Cody Kunyk quickly got himself up the ice and Morley made the read to join the play on a 2 on 1. Give and go, and Morley puts the puck into an open net.
Then just shy of 3 minutes later, 1:02 on the clock and Motte still in the goal, Garrick Perry with a strong armed play around the defender and puts it through the 5-hole for the 5-2 lead. Ferris would get what I would call a meaningless goal with under 12 seconds left to close the gap back to 5-3, but a good play that they caught the 'Nooks on low. Cory Kane got Cahill to bite on the play, then wrapped around the net and found Huff in front for his second goal of the weekend.
Interesting stat to take away, which I've tweeted a few times. Colton Beck has scored 13 goals in 10 games thus far this season. When he scores, the Nanooks are 9-1-0. I haven't gone through every team in college hockey, but that is the best among captains in the WCHA.
The Nanooks have now won 6 straight, and 8 of the last 9 as we head into the final regular season series--the one every Nanook fan has circled on their calendars... ACC. The final 2 games of the Governor's Cup. It's a white out, so wear white to the game! Not a playoff game, but a whiteout nonetheless. With Anchorage idle this weekend, the results around the league bump them down to 6th with tie breakers in effect. The Nanooks now sit in 3rd with the tiebreakers in effect over MTU at 28 points. Next week is going to prove to be an exciting finish...
Now you have to ask yourself--what's more impressive? Sweeping a team you had 0.00% chance of sweeping? Or getting swept by a team that had 0.00% chance of sweeping you?
All I can say is GO 'NOOKS! Let's keep it rolling, boys!
Saturday, March 1, 2014
Nanooks Whip Bulldogs in Epic 4-1 Rout
Nanooks came out of the gates hot and firing tonight. Right out of the gates, Colton Beck hit the wing and sniped one over the left shoulder of CJ Motte just 36 seconds into the game. Then Sean Cahill went into beast mode as Ferris State started upping the pressure. 13 shots for the Bulldogs in the 1st, but Cahill stopped every one of 'em.
Into the 2nd, the Nanooks had a big 5 on 3 penalty kill to push through, but after killing it off they generated some serious offensive pressure and got things going. Nolan Huysmans buried the 2nd and Tyler Morley the 3rd in almost identical plays. Snipes over the left shoulder. 3 goals past Motte in the same fashion.
Ferris would eventually break the goose egg on a goal from Andy Huff on the power play with Hochhausen in the box for high sticking. But into the 3rd, the Nanooks would seal it with a beautiful 2 on 1 chance with Tyler Morley dishing the sauce to Perry on the right wing for the 4th and final goal of the night. Although the fireworks were far from over...
Nonetheless, everyone is eligible to return to the game tonight as of this writing so the stage is set for an epic rematch. Don't forget, the Arctic Camo jerseys are still up for auction, which will end tonight at 9.