Friday, March 14, 2014

The Stat Guy - Statistical Edge After First Victory in Best of 3 Series

After the conclusion of last nights Nanooks victory, I was asked by a fellow fan, statistically how important is winning game 1 of a 3 game series? The answer is that it is critical. If the two teams are equally matched, the odds of course of a victory is a simple coin flip, or 50 percent. However after the victory in game one, the odds of prevailing rise dramatically to 75%. The odds of the loser of game one taking the series correspondingly drops to 25%.

The good news for Anchorage, if there is any, is that if they can prevail in game 2 the odds revert back to a coin toss.

This simple calculation of course does not factor in winning percentage, momentum, home ice or officiating. That's why--I am often reminded--they play the games.

Go Nooks, Math Rocks!

--The Stat Guy

1 comment:

Squarebanks said...

They should have ended this tonight but the bounces didn't go their way. I don't feel good about tomorrow.